FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Simon

Murray

CFScotland · Dundee FC

№ 177130Emerging €183k −0.61

Player dossierPremiership

SimonMurray

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Dundee FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
34
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Murray at €100k. Model A, which never saw Murray during training, estimates €183k: the market value is 45% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.83. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €670k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.61A €183k▼ −1.90B €670k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
66
Minutes
4,799
Goals
23
Assists
4
Started
57/66
Min / app
73
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Murray…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100kModel A €183k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Simon Murray's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 80th, Assists per 90 22nd, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 90th, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 28th80thGoals22ndAssists89thMinutes90thStarts68thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

86% this player59% attacker median90th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2015
Peak
€550k
Jan 2019
Model target
€100k
May 2026
Valuations
16
6 club changes
May 2026€100kDundee FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €100k, Dundee FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-12-07€100kDundee United FC
2016-11-17€250kDundee United FC
2018-03-04€450kDundee FC
2019-01-19€550kBidvest Wits FC
2019-06-26€550kBidvest Wits FC
2020-02-14€450kBidvest Wits FC
2020-04-08€350kWithout Club
2022-12-13€275kQueen's Park FC
2023-06-26€250kRoss County FC
2023-12-05€250kRoss County FC
2024-05-30€200kRoss County FC
2024-12-03€200kDundee FC
2025-06-17€200kDundee FC
2025-12-10€150kDundee FC
2026-03-05€100kDundee FC
2026-05-20€100kDundee FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.606

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 7% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 1% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Murray appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).