FairValue

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Raphaël

Guerreiro

LBPortugal · Bayern Munich

№ 170986Established €7.2M −0.36

Player dossierBundesliga

RaphaëlGuerreiro

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Bayern Munich
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Portugal
Age
32
Height
170 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Guerreiro at €5M. Model A, which never saw Guerreiro during training, estimates €7.2M: the market value is 30% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.36A €7.2M▲ +0.72B €2.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
66
Minutes
3,655
Goals
11
Assists
6
Started
42/66
Min / app
55
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Guerreiro…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €7.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Raphaël Guerreiro's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 99th, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 64th, Starts 19th, Minutes, last 365 days 42nd, European club minutes 95th99thGoals88thAssists64thMinutes19thStarts42ndRecent95thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.27 this player0.03 defender median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Jul 2012
Peak
€40M
Jun 2021
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
38
3 club changes
May 2026€5MBayern MunichValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, Bayern Munich. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-07-30€200kSM Caen
2013-01-04€750kSM Caen
2013-05-29€1.5MSM Caen
2013-09-13€2MFC Lorient
2014-01-14€3MFC Lorient
2014-08-07€3.5MFC Lorient
2015-01-14€6MFC Lorient
2015-06-06€7.5MFC Lorient
2016-02-04€7.5MFC Lorient
2016-06-01€9MFC Lorient
2016-07-22€12MBorussia Dortmund
2016-10-13€18MBorussia Dortmund
2017-02-07€18MBorussia Dortmund
2017-06-19€20MBorussia Dortmund
2017-12-28€20MBorussia Dortmund
2018-06-05€18MBorussia Dortmund
2018-07-16€21MBorussia Dortmund
2018-10-22€18MBorussia Dortmund
2018-12-18€20MBorussia Dortmund
2019-06-05€25MBorussia Dortmund
2019-12-17€25MBorussia Dortmund
2020-03-11€35MBorussia Dortmund
2020-04-08€28MBorussia Dortmund
2020-07-08€35MBorussia Dortmund
2021-02-10€35MBorussia Dortmund
2021-06-01€40MBorussia Dortmund
2021-12-22€35MBorussia Dortmund
2022-06-09€25MBorussia Dortmund
2022-09-21€20MBorussia Dortmund
2022-11-09€20MBorussia Dortmund
2023-06-22€20MBorussia Dortmund
2023-10-18€15MBayern Munich
2023-12-14€15MBayern Munich
2024-05-29€12MBayern Munich
2024-12-20€10MBayern Munich
2025-06-05€8MBayern Munich
2025-12-19€6MBayern Munich
2026-05-27€5MBayern Munich

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.363

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 46% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Guerreiro appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).