FairValue

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Nikolaos

Papadopoulos

GKGreece · Asteras Aktor

№ 169687Emerging €117k +0.07

Player dossierSuper League

NikolaosPapadopoulos

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Asteras Aktor
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
36
Height
196 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Papadopoulos at €125k. Model A, which never saw Papadopoulos during training, estimates €117k: the market value is 7% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €149k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.07A €117k▼ −0.17B €149k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
39
Minutes
3,510
Started
39/39
Min / app
90
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Papadopoulos…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €125k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €125kModel A €117k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Nikolaos Papadopoulos's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 55th, European club minutes 32nd63rdMinutes62ndStarts55thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,510 this player2,790 goalkeeper median63rd percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2011
Peak
€500k
Sept 2015
Model target
€125k
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
6 club changes
Jun 2026€125kAsteras AktorValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €125k, Asteras Aktor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-02-21€50kOlympiacos Piraeus
2011-04-22€250kOlympiacos Piraeus
2011-07-02€250kOlympiacos Piraeus
2011-11-21€250kOlympiacos Piraeus
2012-02-26€250kOlympiacos Piraeus
2013-01-13€250kFortuna Düsseldorf
2013-06-30€250kFortuna Düsseldorf
2014-03-28€250kPanionios FC
2014-11-11€300kPanionios FC
2015-05-10€450kPanionios FC
2015-09-27€500kPanionios FC
2016-06-21€400kPanionios FC
2016-12-21€350kAtromitos Athens
2017-05-11€350kAtromitos Athens
2017-12-18€400kPAS Lamia 1964
2018-05-22€400kPAS Lamia 1964
2018-12-07€450kAsteras Tripolis
2019-05-21€450kAsteras Tripolis
2019-12-18€450kAsteras Tripolis
2020-04-08€350kAsteras Tripolis
2020-08-04€350kAsteras Tripolis
2021-02-12€400kAsteras Tripolis
2021-05-30€500kAsteras Tripolis
2021-11-01€500kAsteras Tripolis
2022-06-09€350kAsteras Tripolis
2022-11-07€400kAsteras Tripolis
2023-05-22€400kAsteras Tripolis
2023-09-21€350kAsteras Tripolis
2023-12-20€350kAsteras Tripolis
2024-05-30€250kAsteras Tripolis
2024-12-18€200kAsteras Aktor
2025-05-23€175kAsteras Aktor
2025-12-12€150kAsteras Aktor
2026-06-04€125kAsteras Aktor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.065

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 3% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€125kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 6% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€125kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Papadopoulos appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).