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Portrait of Andrea Belotti

Andrea

Belotti

CFItaly · Cagliari Calcio

№ 167727Emerging €1.9M −0.23

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

AndreaBelotti

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Cagliari Calcio
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
32
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Belotti at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Belotti during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 21% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.23A €1.9M▲ +0.24B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
1,541
Goals
9
Assists
1
Started
16/48
Min / app
32
Cards
1Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Belotti…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Andrea Belotti's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 90th, Assists per 90 18th, Minutes, two years 33rd, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 7th, European club minutes 68th90thGoals18thAssists33rdMinutes14thStarts7thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.53 this player0.26 attacker median90th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2010
Peak
€40M
Dec 2017
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
39
8 club changes
May 2026€1.5MCagliari CalcioValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, Cagliari Calcio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-11-16€50kAlbinoLeffe Primavera
2012-03-06€250kAlbinoLeffe Primavera
2012-05-26€400kUC AlbinoLeffe
2013-02-15€600kUC AlbinoLeffe
2013-06-10€800kUC AlbinoLeffe
2014-01-29€2.5MUS Palermo
2014-07-15€3.5MUS Palermo
2014-11-08€5MUS Palermo
2015-01-07€5MUS Palermo
2015-07-01€5MUS Palermo
2016-01-04€5MTorino FC
2016-04-01€7MTorino FC
2016-07-15€10MTorino FC
2016-10-14€15MTorino FC
2017-01-02€20MTorino FC
2017-03-28€30MTorino FC
2017-06-08€30MTorino FC
2017-12-29€40MTorino FC
2018-06-07€38MTorino FC
2018-10-12€35MTorino FC
2018-12-20€30MTorino FC
2019-06-06€35MTorino FC
2019-12-12€40MTorino FC
2020-04-08€32MTorino FC
2020-08-25€35MTorino FC
2020-12-29€40MTorino FC
2021-05-25€35MTorino FC
2021-12-28€28MTorino FC
2022-06-07€20MTorino FC
2022-11-11€15MAS Roma
2023-03-21€9MAS Roma
2023-06-15€8MAS Roma
2023-12-20€6MAS Roma
2024-06-05€5MACF Fiorentina
2024-12-18€2MComo 1907
2025-05-30€2MSL Benfica
2025-10-07€1.5MCagliari Calcio
2025-12-23€1.5MCagliari Calcio
2026-05-29€1.5MCagliari Calcio

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.231

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 15% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Belotti appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).