FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Alberto

Paleari

GKItaly · Torino FC

№ 163048Emerging €1.2M +0.02

Player dossierSerie A

AlbertoPaleari

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Torino FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
33
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Paleari at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Paleari during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 2% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €818k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.02A €1.2M▲ +0.38B €818k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
2,970
Started
33/33
Min / app
90
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Paleari…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Alberto Paleari's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 32nd54thMinutes62ndStarts75thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,880 this player1,560 goalkeeper median75th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2010
Peak
€1.2M
May 2026
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
30
7 club changes
May 2026€1.2MTorino FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Torino FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-11-16€50kMilan Primavera
2012-09-14€50kTritium Calcio 1908
2013-02-28€50kTritium Calcio 1908
2013-06-06€75kTritium Calcio 1908
2014-07-16€300kAC Mantova
2015-02-04€150kAS Giana Erminio
2015-06-19€175kAS Giana Erminio
2016-01-14€200kAS Giana Erminio
2016-06-15€200kAS Giana Erminio
2016-12-19€200kAS Cittadella
2017-06-09€200kAS Cittadella
2017-12-21€250kAS Cittadella
2018-06-18€250kAS Cittadella
2019-01-17€500kAS Cittadella
2019-06-05€800kAS Cittadella
2019-12-30€1.1MAS Cittadella
2020-04-08€900kAS Cittadella
2020-08-21€1MAS Cittadella
2020-12-29€1MGenoa CFC
2021-06-03€1MGenoa CFC
2021-12-29€1MBenevento Calcio
2022-06-06€1MBenevento Calcio
2022-12-22€1MBenevento Calcio
2023-06-12€700kBenevento Calcio
2023-12-21€650kBenevento Calcio
2024-06-19€500kBenevento Calcio
2024-12-18€500kTorino FC
2025-06-17€500kTorino FC
2025-12-23€1MTorino FC
2026-05-29€1.2MTorino FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.024

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 11% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 52% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Paleari appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).