Sam
Larsson
AMSweden · Fatih Karagümrük
Player dossierSüper Lig
SamLarsson
AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Fatih Karagümrük
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Sweden
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 180 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Süper LigReading the valuation
The market values Larsson at €600k. Model A, which never saw Larsson during training, estimates €584k: the market value is 3% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €921k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 52
- Minutes
- 4,041
- Goals
- 9
- Assists
- 9
- Started
- 50/52
- Min / app
- 78
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Larsson…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
96% this player69% midfielder median95th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Nov 2011
- Peak
- €7M
- Jan 2017
- Model target
- €600k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 35
- 6 club changes
May 2026: €600k, Fatih Karagümrük. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-11-23 | €50k | Unknown |
| 2012-09-23 | €75k | IFK Göteborg |
| 2013-06-26 | €1M | IFK Göteborg |
| 2014-03-28 | €1M | IFK Göteborg |
| 2014-08-14 | €1.5M | SC Heerenveen |
| 2015-02-16 | €1.8M | SC Heerenveen |
| 2015-07-01 | €2.8M | SC Heerenveen |
| 2015-11-11 | €3M | SC Heerenveen |
| 2016-02-05 | €3.5M | SC Heerenveen |
| 2016-07-15 | €4.5M | SC Heerenveen |
| 2017-01-18 | €7M | SC Heerenveen |
| 2017-06-07 | €7M | SC Heerenveen |
| 2018-01-17 | €6M | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 2018-12-28 | €5M | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 2019-06-12 | €6M | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 2019-12-18 | €5M | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 2020-04-08 | €4M | Dalian Professional |
| 2020-12-26 | €4M | Dalian Professional |
| 2021-08-24 | €3.5M | Dalian Professional |
| 2022-01-17 | €2.8M | Dalian Professional |
| 2022-10-27 | €2M | Antalyaspor |
| 2023-03-14 | €2M | Antalyaspor |
| 2023-06-08 | €1.8M | Antalyaspor |
| 2023-09-27 | €1.8M | Antalyaspor |
| 2023-12-21 | €1.6M | Antalyaspor |
| 2024-03-15 | €1.5M | Antalyaspor |
| 2024-05-31 | €1.5M | Antalyaspor |
| 2024-10-04 | €1.5M | Antalyaspor |
| 2024-12-23 | €1.5M | Antalyaspor |
| 2025-03-20 | €1.4M | Antalyaspor |
| 2025-06-18 | €1.1M | Antalyaspor |
| 2025-10-01 | €900k | Fatih Karagümrük |
| 2025-12-17 | €800k | Fatih Karagümrük |
| 2026-03-05 | €700k | Fatih Karagümrük |
| 2026-05-21 | €600k | Fatih Karagümrük |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.027
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 23% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 20% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Larsson appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- YalçınCBEyüpspor · Süper Lig€600k
- BulutRBBasaksehir FK · Süper Lig€600k
- AjetiCBBodrum FK · Süper Lig€600k
- HaïdaraLBKocaelispor · Süper Lig€600k
- TimofeevDMLokomotiv Moscow · midfielders€600k
- TankovskyiCMLNZ Cherkasy · midfielders€600k
- ShvetsDMRubin Kazan · midfielders€600k
- KranevitterDMFatih Karagümrük · midfielders€600k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).