Serge
Gnabry
SSGermany · Bayern Munich
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
SergeGnabry
SSSecond StrikerAttack
- Club
- Bayern Munich
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Gnabry at €18M. Model A, which never saw Gnabry during training, estimates €17M: the market value is 6% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €10M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 84
- Minutes
- 4,273
- Goals
- 17
- Assists
- 20
- Started
- 49/84
- Min / app
- 51
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gnabry…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Assists per 90
Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.42 this player0.15 attacker median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Jul 2013
- Peak
- €90M
- Mar 2020
- Model target
- €18M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 36
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €18M, Bayern Munich. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2013-07-25 | €500k | Arsenal FC |
| 2013-10-11 | €2M | Arsenal FC |
| 2014-01-15 | €4M | Arsenal FC |
| 2014-08-12 | €4M | Arsenal FC |
| 2015-02-12 | €4M | Arsenal FC |
| 2015-07-01 | €3.5M | Arsenal FC |
| 2016-02-09 | €3M | Arsenal FC |
| 2016-08-01 | €2.5M | Arsenal FC |
| 2016-10-13 | €5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2017-02-07 | €10M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2017-06-19 | €15M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2017-12-28 | €15M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-04-04 | €18M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-06-05 | €20M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-08-22 | €30M | Bayern Munich |
| 2018-12-18 | €40M | Bayern Munich |
| 2019-03-06 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2019-06-05 | €60M | Bayern Munich |
| 2019-12-17 | €80M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-03-11 | €90M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-04-08 | €72M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-09-16 | €90M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-02-10 | €70M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-06-01 | €70M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-12-22 | €70M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-06-09 | €65M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-11-09 | €65M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-03-29 | €55M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-06-22 | €55M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-12-14 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-05-29 | €40M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-12-20 | €35M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-03-27 | €25M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-06-05 | €22M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-12-19 | €20M | Bayern Munich |
| 2026-05-27 | €18M | Bayern Munich |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.054
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 80% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 85% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Gnabry appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- AntonCBBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€18M
- SchickCFBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€18M
- MittelstädtLBVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€18M
- ItoCBBayern Munich · Bundesliga€18M
- TrossardLWArsenal FC · attackers€18M
- SørlothCFAtlético de Madrid · attackers€18M
- AbrahamCFAston Villa · attackers€18M
- AkgünRWGalatasaray · attackers€18M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).