Leon
Goretzka
CMGermany · Bayern Munich
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
LeonGoretzka
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Bayern Munich
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Germany
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 189 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Goretzka at €12M. Model A, which never saw Goretzka during training, estimates €13.5M: the market value is 11% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €9.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 90
- Minutes
- 4,732
- Goals
- 11
- Assists
- 7
- Started
- 52/90
- Min / app
- 53
- Cards
- 12Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Goretzka…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
24% this player0% midfielder median90th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €600k
- Jul 2012
- Peak
- €70M
- Feb 2021
- Model target
- €12M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 36
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €12M, Bayern Munich. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-07-05 | €600k | VfL Bochum |
| 2012-08-26 | €1M | VfL Bochum |
| 2013-01-04 | €3.5M | VfL Bochum |
| 2013-06-29 | €4.5M | VfL Bochum |
| 2014-07-10 | €7.5M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2015-02-04 | €7.5M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2015-07-01 | €7.5M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2015-10-16 | €10M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2016-02-15 | €13M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2016-07-22 | €15M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2017-02-07 | €18M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2017-03-22 | €20M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2017-06-19 | €23M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2017-12-28 | €40M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2018-06-05 | €40M | FC Schalke 04 |
| 2018-12-18 | €40M | Bayern Munich |
| 2019-03-06 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2019-06-05 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2019-12-17 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-04-08 | €40M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-07-08 | €50M | Bayern Munich |
| 2020-09-16 | €60M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-02-10 | €70M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-06-01 | €70M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-12-22 | €70M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-06-09 | €65M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-11-09 | €65M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-06-22 | €45M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-12-14 | €40M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-03-27 | €30M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-05-29 | €30M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-10-09 | €22M | Bayern Munich |
| 2024-12-20 | €22M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-06-05 | €22M | Bayern Munich |
| 2025-12-19 | €15M | Bayern Munich |
| 2026-05-27 | €12M | Bayern Munich |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.120
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 70% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 81% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Goretzka appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- NübelGKVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€12M
- DahmenGKFC Augsburg · Bundesliga€12M
- FührichLWVfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga€12M
- BakuRBRB Leipzig · Bundesliga€12M
- SzymanskiAMStade Rennais FC · midfielders€12M
- CamaraCMStade Rennais FC · midfielders€12M
- OdgaardAMBologna FC 1909 · midfielders€12M
- KoopmeinersDMAZ Alkmaar · midfielders€12M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).