FairValue

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Antonio

Caracciolo

CBItaly · Pisa Sporting Club

№ 149525Emerging €381k +0.74

Player dossierSerie A

AntonioCaracciolo

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Pisa Sporting Club
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
35
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Caracciolo at €800k. Model A, which never saw Caracciolo during training, estimates €381k: the market value is 110% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.10. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €226k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.74A €381k▲ +1.26B €226k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
3,165
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
35/36
Min / app
88
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Caracciolo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €381k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Antonio Caracciolo's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 68th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 56th, Starts 91st, Minutes, last 365 days 92nd, European club minutes 30th68thGoals17thAssists56thMinutes91stStarts92ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,165 this player1,687 defender median92nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Dec 2010
Peak
€800k
Dec 2017
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
33
7 club changes
May 2026€800kPisa Sporting ClubValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, Pisa Sporting Club. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-12-22€100kAS Gubbio 1910
2011-06-23€300kAS Gubbio 1910
2011-12-29€300kAS Gubbio 1910
2012-05-26€300kAS Gubbio 1910
2012-12-23€250kBrescia Calcio
2013-06-25€300kBrescia Calcio
2014-03-07€300kUS Cremonese
2014-07-31€275kBrescia Calcio
2015-02-10€400kBrescia Calcio
2015-06-29€300kBrescia Calcio
2015-12-28€400kBrescia Calcio
2016-06-13€500kBrescia Calcio
2016-12-19€600kHellas Verona
2017-06-09€700kHellas Verona
2017-12-29€800kHellas Verona
2018-06-07€800kHellas Verona
2019-01-17€600kUS Cremonese
2019-06-05€700kUS Cremonese
2019-12-30€700kUS Cremonese
2020-04-08€550kAC Pisa 1909
2020-08-21€550kAC Pisa 1909
2021-02-22€500kAC Pisa 1909
2021-06-24€350kAC Pisa 1909
2021-12-29€350kPisa Sporting Club
2022-06-06€400kPisa Sporting Club
2022-12-22€275kPisa Sporting Club
2023-06-12€250kPisa Sporting Club
2023-12-27€250kPisa Sporting Club
2024-06-03€250kPisa Sporting Club
2024-12-23€400kPisa Sporting Club
2025-06-02€500kPisa Sporting Club
2025-12-23€800kPisa Sporting Club
2026-05-29€800kPisa Sporting Club

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.741

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 4% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 29% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Caracciolo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).