FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Lewis Dunk

Lewis

Dunk

CBEngland · Brighton & Hove Albion

№ 148153Established €1.8M +0.65

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

LewisDunk

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Brighton & Hove Albion
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
34
Height
192 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dunk at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Dunk during training, estimates €1.8M: the market value is 91% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.91. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.65A €1.8M▲ +0.76B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
61
Minutes
5,085
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
56/61
Min / app
83
Cards
16Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dunk…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €1.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Lewis Dunk's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 38th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 84th, Starts 75th, Minutes, last 365 days 88th, European club minutes 30th38thGoals17thAssists84thMinutes75thStarts88thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,927 this player1,687 defender median88th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2010
Peak
€27M
Oct 2020
Model target
€3.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
36
0 club changes
Jun 2026€3.5MBrighton & Hove AlbionValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3.5M, Brighton & Hove Albion. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-07-30€50kBrighton & Hove Albion
2011-10-21€100kBrighton & Hove Albion
2012-02-07€750kBrighton & Hove Albion
2012-06-22€1MBrighton & Hove Albion
2013-03-02€1MBrighton & Hove Albion
2013-07-12€700kBrighton & Hove Albion
2014-01-08€500kBrighton & Hove Albion
2015-02-24€1MBrighton & Hove Albion
2015-09-24€3.5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2016-04-20€3.5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2016-09-01€4.5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2017-02-27€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2017-06-28€5MBrighton & Hove Albion
2018-01-02€7MBrighton & Hove Albion
2018-05-28€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2018-12-19€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2019-06-13€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2019-09-12€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2019-12-10€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-04-08€16MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-07-30€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2020-10-13€27MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-03-18€25MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-06-08€25MBrighton & Hove Albion
2021-12-23€22MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-06-15€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2022-11-03€18MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-06-20€16MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-12-19€14MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-03-14€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-05-27€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-12-16€10MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-03-18€8MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-05-30€6MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-12-09€4MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-06-03€3.5MBrighton & Hove Albion

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.647

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 15% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 63% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dunk appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).