FairValue

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Portrait of Ashley Young

Ashley

Young

RBEngland · Ipswich Town

№ 14086Emerging €139k +1.06

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AshleyYoung

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Ipswich Town
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
40
Height
175 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
3 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Young at €400k. Model A, which never saw Young during training, estimates €139k: the market value is 188% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.88. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €123k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.06A €139k▲ +1.18B €123k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
3,205
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
34/53
Min / app
60
Cards
9Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Young…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €139k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ashley Young's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 47th, Assists per 90 73rd, Minutes, two years 57th, Starts 19th, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 30th47thGoals73rdAssists57thMinutes19thStarts29thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.08 this player0.04 defender median73rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2004
Peak
€27M
Jun 2012
Model target
€400k
Dec 2025
Valuations
43
6 club changes
Dec 2025€400kIpswich TownValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €400k, Ipswich Town. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2004-10-04€50kWatford FC
2006-06-02€1.5MWatford FC
2007-01-16€6.5MWatford FC
2007-05-09€7.1MAston Villa
2007-09-01€7MAston Villa
2008-01-21€9.3MAston Villa
2008-07-04€13MAston Villa
2009-02-23€17MAston Villa
2009-06-26€19MAston Villa
2010-08-13€18MAston Villa
2011-02-01€18MAston Villa
2011-08-08€20MManchester United
2012-02-06€25MManchester United
2012-06-24€27MManchester United
2013-01-28€25MManchester United
2013-07-02€20MManchester United
2014-01-15€14MManchester United
2014-08-12€11MManchester United
2015-02-12€9MManchester United
2015-07-01€10MManchester United
2016-02-09€10MManchester United
2016-08-01€10MManchester United
2017-02-20€7MManchester United
2017-06-28€5MManchester United
2018-01-02€5MManchester United
2018-05-28€7MManchester United
2018-12-19€7MManchester United
2019-06-13€5MManchester United
2019-12-10€4MManchester United
2020-04-08€3.2MInter Milan
2020-08-25€3MInter Milan
2020-12-29€2MInter Milan
2021-03-23€1MInter Milan
2021-06-03€1MInter Milan
2021-12-23€1MAston Villa
2022-06-15€1MAston Villa
2022-11-03€1MAston Villa
2023-06-20€600kAston Villa
2023-12-19€600kEverton FC
2024-05-27€500kEverton FC
2024-12-16€500kEverton FC
2025-05-30€500kEverton FC
2025-12-03€400kIpswich Town

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.057

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 2% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Young appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).