FairValue

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Bruma

LWPortugal · SL Benfica

№ 139396Established €3.1M −0.03

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Bruma

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
SL Benfica
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
31
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bruma at €3M. Model A, which never saw Bruma during training, estimates €3.1M: the market value is 2% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.03A €3.1M▼ −0.38B €4.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
2,798
Goals
12
Assists
10
Started
31/44
Min / app
64
Cards
2Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bruma…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Bruma's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 74th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 63rd, Starts 69th, Minutes, last 365 days 3rd, European club minutes 96th74thGoals93rdAssists63rdMinutes69thStarts3rdRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

32% this player0% attacker median96th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.7M
Nov 2012
Peak
€12.5M
Dec 2017
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
34
11 club changes
May 2026€3MSL BenficaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, SL Benfica. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-11-10€1.7MSporting CP B
2013-03-28€2.5MSporting CP
2013-09-13€10MGalatasaray
2014-01-27€10MGalatasaray
2014-08-11€9MGalatasaray
2014-10-27€8MGalatasaray
2015-01-26€8MGalatasaray
2015-06-25€7.3MGalatasaray
2015-07-16€7MReal Sociedad
2016-02-22€7MReal Sociedad
2016-04-07€5MReal Sociedad
2016-07-15€5MGalatasaray
2017-01-10€8MGalatasaray
2017-06-09€11MGalatasaray
2017-12-28€12.5MRB Leipzig
2018-06-05€12.5MRB Leipzig
2018-12-18€12.5MRB Leipzig
2019-06-05€10MRB Leipzig
2019-12-18€10MPSV Eindhoven
2020-03-12€8MPSV Eindhoven
2020-04-08€6.5MPSV Eindhoven
2020-10-12€7MOlympiacos Piraeus
2021-02-12€5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2022-01-05€5MPSV Eindhoven
2022-06-08€6MPSV Eindhoven
2022-10-27€3.6MFenerbahce
2023-06-16€6MSC Braga
2023-09-29€6.5MSC Braga
2023-12-27€6.5MSC Braga
2024-06-06€7MSC Braga
2024-12-19€8MSC Braga
2025-05-30€7MSL Benfica
2025-12-18€5MSL Benfica
2026-05-28€3MSL Benfica

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.025

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 67% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 52% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bruma appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).