FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Virgil van Dijk

Virgil van

Dijk

CBNetherlands · Liverpool FC

№ 139208Elite €3.7M +1.39

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

Virgil vanDijk

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Liverpool FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
34
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dijk at €15M. Model A, which never saw Dijk during training, estimates €3.7M: the market value is 302% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×4.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.39A €3.7M▲ +1.16B €4.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
101
Minutes
9,111
Goals
12
Assists
4
Started
101/101
Min / app
90
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dijk…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €15M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €15MModel A €3.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Virgil van Dijk's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 92nd, Assists per 90 50th, Minutes, two years 100th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 100th, European club minutes 85th92ndGoals50thAssists100thMinutes97thStarts100thRecent85thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

9,111 this player2,860 defender median100th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
May 2011
Peak
€100M
Sept 2019
Model target
€15M
Jun 2026
Valuations
37
4 club changes
Jun 2026€15MLiverpool FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €15M, Liverpool FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-05-03€50kFC Groningen U21
2011-06-17€250kFC Groningen U21
2011-10-21€600kFC Groningen
2012-01-10€1.3MFC Groningen
2012-07-21€1.5MFC Groningen
2013-01-13€2MFC Groningen
2013-06-12€3MFC Groningen
2014-02-13€4MCeltic FC
2014-10-07€5MCeltic FC
2015-10-14€10MSouthampton FC
2016-02-09€12MSouthampton FC
2016-08-01€12MSouthampton FC
2016-10-24€16MSouthampton FC
2017-02-20€25MSouthampton FC
2017-06-28€30MSouthampton FC
2018-01-02€50MLiverpool FC
2018-05-28€50MLiverpool FC
2018-10-17€60MLiverpool FC
2018-12-19€75MLiverpool FC
2019-06-13€90MLiverpool FC
2019-09-12€100MLiverpool FC
2019-12-10€100MLiverpool FC
2020-04-08€80MLiverpool FC
2020-10-13€80MLiverpool FC
2021-03-18€70MLiverpool FC
2021-06-08€55MLiverpool FC
2021-12-23€55MLiverpool FC
2022-06-15€55MLiverpool FC
2022-11-03€50MLiverpool FC
2023-03-16€45MLiverpool FC
2023-06-20€35MLiverpool FC
2023-12-19€32MLiverpool FC
2024-05-27€30MLiverpool FC
2024-12-16€28MLiverpool FC
2025-05-30€23MLiverpool FC
2025-12-09€18MLiverpool FC
2026-06-03€15MLiverpool FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.392

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 43% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 87% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€15MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dijk appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).