FairValue

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Daniel

Carvajal

RBSpain · Real Madrid

№ 138927Established €1.8M +0.82

Player dossierLaLiga

DanielCarvajal

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Real Madrid
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
34
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Carvajal at €4M. Model A, which never saw Carvajal during training, estimates €1.8M: the market value is 128% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €921k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.82A €1.8M▲ +1.47B €921k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
35
Minutes
1,982
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
20/35
Min / app
57
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Carvajal…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €1.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Daniel Carvajal's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 61st, Assists per 90 75th, Minutes, two years 33rd, Starts 12th, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 83rd61stGoals75thAssists33rdMinutes12thStarts31stRecent83rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

19% this player0% defender median83rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€6M
Jul 2012
Peak
€60M
Mar 2018
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
36
1 club change
Jun 2026€4MReal MadridValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-07-14€6MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2013-01-13€8MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2013-06-30€10MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2013-07-25€10MReal Madrid
2014-01-23€12MReal Madrid
2014-07-20€18MReal Madrid
2015-01-23€22MReal Madrid
2015-07-01€25MReal Madrid
2016-02-22€25MReal Madrid
2016-07-15€25MReal Madrid
2017-01-24€30MReal Madrid
2017-06-05€32MReal Madrid
2018-01-01€45MReal Madrid
2018-03-22€60MReal Madrid
2018-05-30€60MReal Madrid
2018-12-21€60MReal Madrid
2019-06-11€50MReal Madrid
2019-12-20€50MReal Madrid
2020-04-08€40MReal Madrid
2020-10-08€40MReal Madrid
2021-01-05€40MReal Madrid
2021-06-10€30MReal Madrid
2021-10-13€25MReal Madrid
2021-12-30€20MReal Madrid
2022-03-21€18MReal Madrid
2022-06-03€18MReal Madrid
2022-11-07€18MReal Madrid
2023-03-23€15MReal Madrid
2023-06-13€12MReal Madrid
2023-12-22€12MReal Madrid
2024-06-07€12MReal Madrid
2024-12-27€10MReal Madrid
2025-06-09€8MReal Madrid
2025-12-12€7MReal Madrid
2026-03-16€6MReal Madrid
2026-06-05€4MReal Madrid

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.823

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 50% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 65% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Carvajal appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).