FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Haris

Belkebla

CMAlgeria · Angers SCO

№ 138055Emerging €1.6M +0.11

Player dossierLigue 1

HarisBelkebla

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Angers SCO
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Algeria
Age
32
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Belkebla at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Belkebla during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 12% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.11A €1.6M▲ +0.16B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
4,675
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
54/55
Min / app
85
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Belkebla…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Haris Belkebla's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 83rd, Starts 98th, Minutes, last 365 days 89th, European club minutes 30th10thGoals17thAssists83rdMinutes98thStarts89thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

98% this player69% midfielder median98th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Nov 2014
Peak
€4M
May 2022
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
3 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MAngers SCOValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Angers SCO. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-11-20€300kTours FC
2015-01-14€300kTours FC
2015-06-06€600kTours FC
2016-02-04€800kTours FC
2016-07-13€800kTours FC
2017-03-20€1MTours FC
2017-06-15€1MTours FC
2018-05-16€800kTours FC
2019-01-08€800kStade Brestois 29
2019-06-27€1MStade Brestois 29
2019-12-19€1.5MStade Brestois 29
2020-04-08€1.2MStade Brestois 29
2020-10-15€2MStade Brestois 29
2021-04-09€2.5MStade Brestois 29
2021-06-04€2.5MStade Brestois 29
2021-12-16€3MStade Brestois 29
2022-05-30€4MStade Brestois 29
2022-11-02€4MStade Brestois 29
2023-03-27€3MStade Brestois 29
2023-06-27€3MStade Brestois 29
2023-10-26€2.5MOhod Club
2024-02-28€2.2MOhod Club
2024-06-04€1.7MOhod Club
2024-10-07€1.5MAngers SCO
2024-12-10€2MAngers SCO
2025-06-03€2MAngers SCO
2025-12-15€2MAngers SCO
2026-06-01€1.8MAngers SCO

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.111

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 16% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 44% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Belkebla appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).