FairValue

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Portrait of Ross Barkley

Ross

Barkley

CMEngland · Aston Villa

№ 131978Established €3.5M +0.13

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

RossBarkley

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Aston Villa
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
32
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Barkley at €4M. Model A, which never saw Barkley during training, estimates €3.5M: the market value is 14% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.13A €3.5M▲ +0.35B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
1,656
Goals
7
Assists
2
Started
12/51
Min / app
32
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Barkley…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €4M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €4MModel A €3.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ross Barkley's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 97th, Assists per 90 56th, Minutes, two years 29th, Starts 3rd, Minutes, last 365 days 30th, European club minutes 69th97thGoals56thAssists29thMinutes3rdStarts30thRecent69thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.38 this player0.08 midfielder median97th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Aug 2011
Peak
€30M
Jun 2019
Model target
€4M
Jun 2026
Valuations
39
6 club changes
Jun 2026€4MAston VillaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €4M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-08-12€300kEverton FC
2011-09-07€750kEverton FC
2012-02-09€4.5MEverton FC
2012-06-24€4.5MEverton FC
2013-07-02€4.5MEverton FC
2013-09-18€6MEverton FC
2014-01-15€11MEverton FC
2014-08-12€15MEverton FC
2015-02-12€16MEverton FC
2015-07-01€16MEverton FC
2016-02-09€21MEverton FC
2016-06-01€22MEverton FC
2016-08-01€22MEverton FC
2017-02-20€22MEverton FC
2017-06-28€25MEverton FC
2018-01-02€25MEverton FC
2018-05-28€25MChelsea FC
2018-12-19€25MChelsea FC
2019-03-05€28MChelsea FC
2019-06-13€30MChelsea FC
2019-12-10€27MChelsea FC
2020-04-08€21.5MChelsea FC
2020-10-13€21.5MAston Villa
2021-03-18€20MAston Villa
2021-06-08€20MChelsea FC
2021-10-05€17MChelsea FC
2021-12-23€13MChelsea FC
2022-06-15€12MChelsea FC
2022-11-02€10MOGC Nice
2023-03-27€9MOGC Nice
2023-06-27€6MOGC Nice
2023-10-09€4.5MLuton Town
2023-12-19€7MLuton Town
2024-03-14€8MLuton Town
2024-05-27€8MLuton Town
2024-12-16€8MAston Villa
2025-05-30€6MAston Villa
2025-12-09€5MAston Villa
2026-06-03€4MAston Villa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.133

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 16% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 61% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€4MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Barkley appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).