NikolaiAlho

RBRight-BackDefender

Club: Asteras Aktor
League: Super League
Nationality: Finland
Age: 33
Height: 172 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Alho at €250k. Model A, which never saw Alho during training, estimates €208k: the market value is 20% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €315k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 34
Minutes: 2,582
Goals: 0
Assists: 3
Started: 31/34
Min / app: 76
Cards: 7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Alho…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.10 this player0.04 defender median78th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Aug 2012
Peak: €500k; Nov 2022
Model target: €250k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 28; 5 club changes

Jun 2026€250kAsteras AktorValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €250k, Asteras Aktor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2012-08-02	€50k	HJK Helsinki
2014-05-08	€300k	HJK Helsinki
2014-11-06	€400k	HJK Helsinki
2015-08-25	€300k	HJK Helsinki
2016-03-10	€300k	HJK Helsinki
2016-07-09	€300k	HJK Helsinki
2016-10-28	€300k	HJK Helsinki
2017-06-20	€300k	Halmstads BK
2017-11-17	€125k	Halmstads BK
2018-04-25	€150k	HJK Helsinki
2018-10-23	€250k	HJK Helsinki
2019-04-04	€250k	HJK Helsinki
2019-07-25	€250k	HJK Helsinki
2019-10-20	€250k	HJK Helsinki
2020-05-17	€300k	HJK Helsinki
2020-08-31	€400k	HJK Helsinki
2021-01-24	€400k	MTK Budapest
2021-05-26	€450k	MTK Budapest
2021-10-11	€350k	MTK Budapest
2022-06-09	€400k	Volos NFC
2022-11-07	€500k	Volos NFC
2023-05-22	€500k	Volos NFC
2023-12-20	€500k	Volos NFC
2024-05-30	€400k	Volos NFC
2024-12-18	€350k	Asteras Aktor
2025-05-23	€300k	Asteras Aktor
2025-12-12	€300k	Asteras Aktor
2026-06-04	€250k	Asteras Aktor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.182

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 15% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 7% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Alho appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).