FairValue

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Patric

CBSpain · SS Lazio

№ 126729Emerging €1.7M −0.12

Player dossierSerie A

Patric

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
SS Lazio
League
Serie A
Nationality
Spain
Age
33
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Patric at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Patric during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €1.7M▲ +0.32B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
1,849
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
18/33
Min / app
56
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Patric…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Patric's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 30th, Starts 11th, Minutes, last 365 days 20th, European club minutes 87th63rdGoals17thAssists30thMinutes11thStarts20thRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

22% this player0% defender median87th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2012
Peak
€9M
Aug 2020
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
34
1 club change
May 2026€1.5MSS LazioValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, SS Lazio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-08-07€200kFC Barcelona B
2012-12-02€300kFC Barcelona B
2013-01-22€600kFC Barcelona B
2013-05-09€600kFC Barcelona B
2013-10-08€600kFC Barcelona B
2014-02-10€600kFC Barcelona B
2014-08-05€800kFC Barcelona B
2015-01-08€800kFC Barcelona B
2015-07-01€800kSS Lazio
2016-01-04€800kSS Lazio
2016-07-15€800kSS Lazio
2017-01-02€1MSS Lazio
2017-06-08€1.8MSS Lazio
2017-12-29€2MSS Lazio
2018-06-07€1.8MSS Lazio
2018-12-20€2MSS Lazio
2019-06-06€1.8MSS Lazio
2019-12-12€3MSS Lazio
2020-03-03€8MSS Lazio
2020-04-08€6.5MSS Lazio
2020-08-25€9MSS Lazio
2020-12-29€9MSS Lazio
2021-03-23€6.5MSS Lazio
2021-06-03€6.5MSS Lazio
2021-12-28€5MSS Lazio
2022-06-07€5.5MSS Lazio
2022-11-11€6MSS Lazio
2023-06-15€5MSS Lazio
2023-12-20€4MSS Lazio
2024-06-05€4MSS Lazio
2024-12-18€4MSS Lazio
2025-06-17€2.5MSS Lazio
2025-12-23€1.5MSS Lazio
2026-05-29€1.5MSS Lazio

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.123

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 15% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Patric appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).