FairValue

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Portrait of Marco Bizot

Marco

Bizot

GKNetherlands · Aston Villa

№ 124884Emerging €1.9M −0.25

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MarcoBizot

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Aston Villa
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
35
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bizot at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Bizot during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.25A €1.9M▼ −0.06B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
55
Minutes
4,860
Started
54/55
Min / app
88
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bizot…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Marco Bizot's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 76th, Starts 20th, Minutes, last 365 days 41st, European club minutes 89th76thMinutes20thStarts41stRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% goalkeeper median89th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2011
Peak
€7M
Mar 2020
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
33
5 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MAston VillaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-07-11€50kSC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2012-01-01€150kSC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2012-07-21€500kFC Groningen
2013-06-12€1MFC Groningen
2014-02-11€1.5MFC Groningen
2014-08-11€1.5MKRC Genk
2015-01-07€1.2MKRC Genk
2015-06-24€1MKRC Genk
2016-02-07€1.2MKRC Genk
2016-07-15€1.2MKRC Genk
2017-01-21€1.2MKRC Genk
2017-06-06€1.2MKRC Genk
2018-01-17€2MAZ Alkmaar
2018-03-27€3.5MAZ Alkmaar
2018-06-12€4MAZ Alkmaar
2018-12-28€3.5MAZ Alkmaar
2019-06-12€4.5MAZ Alkmaar
2019-12-18€6MAZ Alkmaar
2020-03-12€7MAZ Alkmaar
2020-04-08€5.5MAZ Alkmaar
2020-10-14€5.5MAZ Alkmaar
2021-05-27€5MAZ Alkmaar
2021-12-16€5MStade Brestois 29
2022-05-30€4.5MStade Brestois 29
2022-11-02€4MStade Brestois 29
2023-06-27€3.5MStade Brestois 29
2023-12-18€3.5MStade Brestois 29
2024-03-19€4MStade Brestois 29
2024-06-03€4MStade Brestois 29
2024-12-10€3.5MStade Brestois 29
2025-06-03€3MStade Brestois 29
2025-12-09€2.5MAston Villa
2026-06-03€1.5MAston Villa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.249

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 7% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 55% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bizot appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).