FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Nazar

Makarenko

GKUkraine · FC Oleksandriya

№ 1241968Emerging €307k +0.49

Player dossierPremier Liha

NazarMakarenko

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
FC Oleksandriya
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
18
Height
193 cm
Foot
–
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Makarenko at €500k. Model A, which never saw Makarenko during training, estimates €307k: the market value is 63% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.63. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.49A €307k▼ −0.91B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
12
Minutes
1,080
Started
12/12
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Makarenko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €307k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Nazar Makarenko's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 20th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 40th, European club minutes 32nd20thMinutes62ndStarts40thRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2025
Peak
€500k
Jun 2026
Model target
€500k
Jun 2026
Valuations
3
1 club change
Jun 2026€500kFC OleksandriyaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €500k, FC Oleksandriya. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2025-09-10€100kFC Oleksandriya-2
2025-12-18€100kFC Oleksandriya-2
2026-06-02€500kFC Oleksandriya

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.489

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 52% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Makarenko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).