FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Ruud Nijstad

Ruud

Nijstad

CBNetherlands · FC Twente Enschede

№ 1189172Elite €5.5M +0.60

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierEredivisie

RuudNijstad

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Twente Enschede
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
18
Height
195 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Nijstad at €10M. Model A, which never saw Nijstad during training, estimates €5.5M: the market value is 81% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.81. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €12.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.60A €5.5M▼ −0.21B €12.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
24
Minutes
1,770
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
19/24
Min / app
74
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Nijstad…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €5.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ruud Nijstad's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 64th, Assists per 90 58th, Minutes, two years 28th, Starts 43rd, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 30th64thGoals58thAssists28thMinutes43rdStarts53rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.05 this player0.03 defender median64th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Sept 2025
Peak
€10M
May 2026
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
4
0 club changes
May 2026€10MFC Twente EnschedeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, FC Twente Enschede. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2025-09-27€150kFC Twente Enschede
2025-12-02€700kFC Twente Enschede
2026-03-11€8MFC Twente Enschede
2026-05-28€10MFC Twente Enschede

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.596

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 91% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Nijstad appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).