FairValue

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Portrait of Michael Keane

Michael

Keane

CBEngland · Everton FC

№ 118534Established €3.1M −0.04

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MichaelKeane

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Everton FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
33
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Keane at €3M. Model A, which never saw Keane during training, estimates €3.1M: the market value is 4% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.04A €3.1M▲ +0.74B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
4,002
Goals
6
Assists
1
Started
44/52
Min / app
77
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Keane…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Michael Keane's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 94th, Assists per 90 39th, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 83rd, European club minutes 30th94thGoals39thAssists69thMinutes54thStarts83rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.13 this player0.03 defender median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jun 2012
Peak
€30M
Jun 2019
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
33
4 club changes
Jun 2026€3MEverton FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Everton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-06-24€100kManchester United Reserves
2013-11-05€300kManchester United U21
2014-01-08€500kDerby County
2015-02-12€2MBurnley FC
2015-09-24€2MBurnley FC
2016-04-20€4.5MBurnley FC
2016-08-01€8MBurnley FC
2017-02-20€12MBurnley FC
2017-06-28€18MBurnley FC
2018-01-02€20MEverton FC
2018-05-28€20MEverton FC
2018-10-17€22MEverton FC
2018-12-19€25MEverton FC
2019-06-13€30MEverton FC
2019-12-10€30MEverton FC
2020-03-09€25MEverton FC
2020-04-08€20MEverton FC
2020-10-13€28MEverton FC
2021-03-18€28MEverton FC
2021-06-08€25MEverton FC
2021-12-23€25MEverton FC
2022-03-29€22MEverton FC
2022-06-15€20MEverton FC
2022-09-15€16MEverton FC
2022-11-03€14MEverton FC
2023-03-16€10MEverton FC
2023-06-20€10MEverton FC
2023-12-19€7MEverton FC
2024-05-27€6MEverton FC
2024-12-16€6MEverton FC
2025-05-30€5MEverton FC
2025-12-09€4MEverton FC
2026-06-03€3MEverton FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.036

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 12% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Keane appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).