FairValue

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Mariano

Troilo

CBArgentina · Parma Calcio 1913

№ 1159864Elite €7.9M +0.23

Player dossierSerie A

MarianoTroilo

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Parma Calcio 1913
League
Serie A
Nationality
Argentina
Age
22
Height
194 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Troilo at €10M. Model A, which never saw Troilo during training, estimates €7.9M: the market value is 26% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.23A €7.9M▲ +1.16B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
23
Minutes
1,808
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
20/23
Min / app
79
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Troilo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €7.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Mariano Troilo's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 64th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 29th, Starts 61st, Minutes, last 365 days 55th, European club minutes 30th64thGoals17thAssists29thMinutes61stStarts55thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.05 this player0.03 defender median64th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2023
Peak
€10M
May 2026
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
9
2 club changes
May 2026€10MParma Calcio 1913Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Parma Calcio 1913. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-12-19€50kCA Belgrano II
2024-06-12€700kClub Atlético Belgrano
2024-09-30€2.5MClub Atlético Belgrano
2024-12-13€2.5MClub Atlético Belgrano
2025-06-02€4MClub Atlético Belgrano
2025-10-07€6.5MParma Calcio 1913
2025-12-23€6MParma Calcio 1913
2026-03-24€7.5MParma Calcio 1913
2026-05-29€10MParma Calcio 1913

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.231

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 65% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Troilo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).