FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Geovany Quenda

Geovany

Quenda

RWPortugal · Sporting CP

№ 1138758World Class €31.7M +0.28

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

GeovanyQuenda

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Sporting CP
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
19
Height
172 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Quenda at €42M. Model A, which never saw Quenda during training, estimates €31.7M: the market value is 32% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.32. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €35.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.28A €31.7M▲ +0.17B €35.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
76
Minutes
4,662
Goals
9
Assists
14
Started
49/76
Min / app
61
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Quenda…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €42M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €42MModel A €31.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Geovany Quenda's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 29th, Assists per 90 86th, Minutes, two years 88th, Starts 59th, Minutes, last 365 days 53rd, European club minutes 89th29thGoals86thAssists88thMinutes59thStarts53rdRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

24% this player0% attacker median89th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€15M
Oct 2024
Peak
€45M
Mar 2025
Model target
€42M
May 2026
Valuations
7
0 club changes
May 2026€42MSporting CPValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €42M, Sporting CP. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-10-08€15MSporting CP
2024-12-19€30MSporting CP
2025-03-31€45MSporting CP
2025-05-30€45MSporting CP
2025-12-18€45MSporting CP
2026-03-19€42MSporting CP
2026-05-28€42MSporting CP

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.281

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Joint 4th highest observed value among 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€42MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 96% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€42MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Quenda appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).