FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Juma

Bah

CBSierra Leone · OGC Nice

№ 1121298Elite €13.9M −0.33

Player dossierLigue 1

JumaBah

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
OGC Nice
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Sierra Leone
Age
20
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Bah at €10M. Model A, which never saw Bah during training, estimates €13.9M: the market value is 28% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.39. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €23.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.33A €13.9M▼ −0.84B €23.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
57
Minutes
4,299
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
49/57
Min / app
75
Cards
12Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Bah…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €13.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Juma Bah's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 74th, Starts 58th, Minutes, last 365 days 81st, European club minutes 79th18thGoals17thAssists74thMinutes58thStarts81stRecent79thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,660 this player1,687 defender median81st percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Oct 2024
Peak
€10M
Mar 2026
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
7
2 club changes
Jun 2026€10MOGC NiceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, OGC Nice. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-10-14€500kReal Valladolid CF
2024-12-27€1MReal Valladolid CF
2025-03-24€4MRC Lens
2025-06-03€6MRC Lens
2025-12-15€7MOGC Nice
2026-03-27€10MOGC Nice
2026-06-01€10MOGC Nice

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.329

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 66% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Bah appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).