FairValue

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Portrait of Emiliano Martínez

Emiliano

Martínez

GKArgentina · Aston Villa

№ 111873Elite €9.4M +0.25

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

EmilianoMartínez

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Aston Villa
League
Premier League
Nationality
Argentina
Age
33
Height
195 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Martínez at €12M. Model A, which never saw Martínez during training, estimates €9.4M: the market value is 28% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.25A €9.4M▲ +0.67B €6.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
96
Minutes
8,415
Started
95/96
Min / app
88
Cards
8Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Martínez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €9.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Emiliano Martínez's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 98th, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 88th98thMinutes23rdStarts94thRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

8,415 this player2,790 goalkeeper median98th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jan 2014
Peak
€35M
Jul 2021
Model target
€12M
Jun 2026
Valuations
32
6 club changes
Jun 2026€12MAston VillaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €12M, Aston Villa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-01-08€300kSheffield Wednesday
2015-02-12€1MArsenal FC
2015-07-01€1.5MArsenal FC
2016-04-20€1.5MWolverhampton Wanderers
2016-08-01€1.5MArsenal FC
2017-02-20€1MArsenal FC
2017-06-28€1MArsenal FC
2018-01-01€800kGetafe CF
2018-05-30€1MGetafe CF
2018-12-19€1MArsenal FC
2019-06-13€2MArsenal FC
2019-09-12€3.5MArsenal FC
2019-12-10€3.5MArsenal FC
2020-04-08€2.8MArsenal FC
2020-07-30€8MArsenal FC
2020-10-13€12MAston Villa
2020-12-17€18MAston Villa
2021-03-18€25MAston Villa
2021-06-08€30MAston Villa
2021-07-16€35MAston Villa
2021-12-23€32MAston Villa
2022-06-15€28MAston Villa
2022-11-03€25MAston Villa
2022-12-23€28MAston Villa
2023-06-20€28MAston Villa
2023-12-19€28MAston Villa
2024-05-27€28MAston Villa
2024-12-16€25MAston Villa
2025-05-30€20MAston Villa
2025-10-17€16MAston Villa
2025-12-09€15MAston Villa
2026-06-03€12MAston Villa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.246

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 36% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 90% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Martínez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).