FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Newerton

LWBrazil · Shakhtar Donetsk

№ 1082823Established €6.2M +0.12

Player dossierPremier Liha

Newerton

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Shakhtar Donetsk
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Brazil
Age
21
Height
165 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Newerton at €7M. Model A, which never saw Newerton during training, estimates €6.2M: the market value is 13% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €14.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.12A €6.2M▼ −0.73B €14.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
2,680
Goals
10
Assists
4
Started
29/54
Min / app
50
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Newerton…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €6.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Newerton's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 64th, Assists per 90 45th, Minutes, two years 61st, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 71st, European club minutes 81st64thGoals45thAssists61stMinutes41stStarts71stRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

18% this player0% attacker median81st percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1.2M
Jul 2023
Peak
€7M
Jun 2026
Model target
€7M
Jun 2026
Valuations
8
0 club changes
Jun 2026€7MShakhtar DonetskValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €7M, Shakhtar Donetsk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-07-25€1.2MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-09-14€3MShakhtar Donetsk
2023-12-11€3MShakhtar Donetsk
2024-06-06€2.5MShakhtar Donetsk
2024-12-17€3MShakhtar Donetsk
2025-06-10€3MShakhtar Donetsk
2025-12-18€6MShakhtar Donetsk
2026-06-02€7MShakhtar Donetsk

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.123

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 95% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 70% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Newerton appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).