Marcel
Sabitzer
CMAustria · Borussia Dortmund
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
MarcelSabitzer
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Borussia Dortmund
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Austria
- Age
- 32
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Sabitzer at €6M. Model A, which never saw Sabitzer during training, estimates €7M: the market value is 14% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 78
- Minutes
- 5,240
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 59/78
- Min / app
- 67
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sabitzer…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €6M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
29% this player0% midfielder median95th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Nov 2010
- Peak
- €42M
- Feb 2021
- Model target
- €6M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 45
- 6 club changes
May 2026: €6M, Borussia Dortmund. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-11-26 | €100k | FC Admira Wacker Mödling |
| 2011-09-21 | €125k | FC Admira Wacker Mödling |
| 2011-12-30 | €125k | FC Admira Wacker Mödling |
| 2012-04-02 | €250k | FC Admira Wacker Mödling |
| 2012-05-30 | €500k | FC Admira Wacker Mödling |
| 2012-09-24 | €1.2M | FC Admira Wacker Mödling |
| 2012-12-19 | €1.2M | FC Admira Wacker Mödling |
| 2013-06-04 | €1.2M | Rapid Vienna |
| 2013-12-27 | €1.2M | Rapid Vienna |
| 2014-06-20 | €2M | Rapid Vienna |
| 2014-10-21 | €2.5M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2015-01-11 | €2.8M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2015-06-17 | €4M | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2016-02-11 | €4M | RB Leipzig |
| 2016-06-01 | €4M | RB Leipzig |
| 2016-07-22 | €4M | RB Leipzig |
| 2016-10-13 | €5M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-02-07 | €8M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-03-22 | €10M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-06-19 | €13M | RB Leipzig |
| 2017-12-28 | €18M | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-04-04 | €25M | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-06-05 | €25M | RB Leipzig |
| 2018-12-18 | €25M | RB Leipzig |
| 2019-06-05 | €25M | RB Leipzig |
| 2019-10-02 | €30M | RB Leipzig |
| 2019-12-17 | €40M | RB Leipzig |
| 2020-04-08 | €32M | RB Leipzig |
| 2020-07-08 | €35M | RB Leipzig |
| 2021-02-10 | €42M | RB Leipzig |
| 2021-05-27 | €42M | RB Leipzig |
| 2021-10-07 | €32M | Bayern Munich |
| 2021-12-22 | €27M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-03-24 | €22M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-06-09 | €15M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-09-21 | €20M | Bayern Munich |
| 2022-11-09 | €20M | Bayern Munich |
| 2023-06-20 | €20M | Manchester United |
| 2023-12-14 | €20M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2024-05-29 | €20M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2024-12-20 | €15M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2025-03-27 | €10M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2025-06-05 | €8M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2025-12-19 | €7M | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2026-05-27 | €6M | Borussia Dortmund |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.155
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 53% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 69% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Sabitzer appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- FlekkenGKBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€6M
- AndrichDMBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€6M
- PoschCB1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga€6M
- JakicDMFC Augsburg · Bundesliga€6M
- CasemiroDMManchester United · midfielders€6M
- PašalićCMAtalanta BC · midfielders€6M
- BarriosDMZenit St. Petersburg · midfielders€6M
- FidalgoCMReal Betis Balompié · midfielders€6M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).