FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ahmed Ouattara

Kossonou

LBCote d'Ivoire · AE Larisa

№ 1059172Emerging €290k +0.44

Player dossierSuper League

Ahmed OuattaraKossonou

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
AE Larisa
League
Super League
Nationality
Cote d'Ivoire
Age
22
Height
181 cm
Foot
–
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kossonou at €450k. Model A, which never saw Kossonou during training, estimates €290k: the market value is 55% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €394k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.44A €290k▲ +0.13B €394k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
1,012
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
11/20
Min / app
51
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kossonou…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €450k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €450kModel A €290k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 11th, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals74thAssists12thMinutes11thStarts29thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.09 this player0.04 defender median74th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Feb 2023
Peak
€450k
Jun 2026
Model target
€450k
Jun 2026
Valuations
10
0 club changes
Jun 2026€450kAE LarisaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €450k, AE Larisa. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2023-02-27€150kAE Larisa
2023-06-19€150kAE Larisa
2023-12-28€200kAE Larisa
2024-03-13€250kAE Larisa
2024-05-23€250kAE Larisa
2024-12-27€300kAE Larisa
2025-05-16€350kAE Larisa
2025-12-12€350kAE Larisa
2026-03-06€400kAE Larisa
2026-06-04€450kAE Larisa

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.439

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 35% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 17% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€450kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kossonou appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).