Estêvão
RWBrazil · Chelsea FC
Player dossierPremier League
Estêvão
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- Chelsea FC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 19
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Estêvão at €80M. Model A, which never saw Estêvão during training, estimates €46.3M: the market value is 73% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.73. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €12.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 41
- Minutes
- 2,061
- Goals
- 9
- Assists
- 4
- Started
- 25/41
- Min / app
- 50
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Estêvão…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €80M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
39% this player0% attacker median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €10M
- Dec 2023
- Peak
- €80M
- Dec 2025
- Model target
- €80M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 9
- 2 club changes
Jun 2026: €80M, Chelsea FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-11 | €10M | SE Palmeiras São Paulo U20 |
| 2024-03-28 | €10M | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2024-06-17 | €30M | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2024-09-27 | €40M | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2024-12-09 | €50M | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2025-03-28 | €55M | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2025-06-06 | €60M | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras |
| 2025-12-09 | €80M | Chelsea FC |
| 2026-06-03 | €80M | Chelsea FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.547
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 97% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 99% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Estêvão appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- TonaliDMNewcastle United · Premier League€80M
- GravenberchDMLiverpool FC · Premier League€80M
- SemenyoRWManchester City · Premier League€80M
- PedroCFChelsea FC · Premier League€80M
- EkitikéCFLiverpool FC · attackers€80M
- IsakCFLiverpool FC · attackers€85M
- MartínezCFInter Milan · attackers€85M
- OsimhenCFGalatasaray · attackers€75M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).