FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Mikey Moore

Mikey

Moore

LWEngland · Rangers FC

№ 1011147Elite €9M +0.69

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremiership

MikeyMoore

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Rangers FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
England
Age
18
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Moore at €18M. Model A, which never saw Moore during training, estimates €9M: the market value is 100% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.00. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €12.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.69A €9M▲ +0.38B €12.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
2,986
Goals
7
Assists
4
Started
33/56
Min / app
53
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Moore…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €18MModel A €9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Mikey Moore's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 39th, Assists per 90 40th, Minutes, two years 66th, Starts 50th, Minutes, last 365 days 79th, European club minutes 84th39thGoals40thAssists66thMinutes50thStarts79thRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

21% this player0% attacker median84th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Oct 2024
Peak
€18M
May 2025
Model target
€18M
May 2026
Valuations
7
1 club change
May 2026€18MRangers FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €18M, Rangers FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-10-01€1MTottenham Hotspur
2024-12-16€10MTottenham Hotspur
2025-03-18€15MTottenham Hotspur
2025-05-30€18MTottenham Hotspur
2025-10-08€16MRangers FC
2025-12-10€16MRangers FC
2026-05-20€18MRangers FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.691

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Joint 2nd highest observed value among 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 85% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€18MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Moore appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).