Murillo
CBBrazil · Nottingham Forest
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
Murillo
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Nottingham Forest
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 23
- Height
- 180 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Murillo at €50M. Model A, which never saw Murillo during training, estimates €42.5M: the market value is 18% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €10.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 78
- Minutes
- 6,365
- Goals
- 4
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 73/78
- Min / app
- 82
- Cards
- 13Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Murillo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €50M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
6,365 this player2,860 defender median95th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Apr 2023
- Peak
- €55M
- Mar 2025
- Model target
- €50M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 1 club change
Jun 2026: €50M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-07 | €500k | Sport Club Corinthians Paulista |
| 2023-07-25 | €3.5M | Sport Club Corinthians Paulista |
| 2023-10-09 | €9M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2023-12-19 | €22M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2024-03-14 | €25M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2024-05-27 | €35M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2024-10-01 | €40M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2024-12-16 | €50M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2025-03-18 | €55M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2025-05-30 | €55M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2025-12-09 | €55M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-03-09 | €50M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-06-03 | €50M | Nottingham Forest |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.162
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 88% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 98% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Murillo appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- CucurellaLBChelsea FC · Premier League€50M
- RodriDMManchester City · Premier League€50M
- LacroixCBCrystal Palace · Premier League€50M
- MarmoushCFManchester City · Premier League€50M
- DimarcoLBInter Milan · defenders€50M
- BisseckCBInter Milan · defenders€50M
- VenCBTottenham Hotspur · defenders€50M
- NunesRBManchester City · defenders€50M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).