FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

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Portrait of Vitor Reis

Vitor

Reis

CBBrazil · Girona FC

№ 1005575World Class €12M +0.92

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

VitorReis

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Girona FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Brazil
Age
20
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Reis at €30M. Model A, which never saw Reis during training, estimates €12M: the market value is 151% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.51. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €12.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.92A €12M▲ +0.87B €12.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
3,513
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
40/42
Min / app
84
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Reis…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €30MModel A €12M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Vitor Reis's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 45th, Assists per 90 41st, Minutes, two years 62nd, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 95th, European club minutes 63rd45thGoals41stAssists62ndMinutes85thStarts95thRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,377 this player1,687 defender median95th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€10M
Sept 2024
Peak
€30M
Mar 2025
Model target
€30M
Jun 2026
Valuations
6
2 club changes
Jun 2026€30MGirona FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €30M, Girona FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2024-09-27€10MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2024-12-09€14MSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
2025-03-18€30MManchester City
2025-05-30€30MManchester City
2025-12-12€30MGirona FC
2026-06-05€30MGirona FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.920

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 91% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€30MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Reis appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).