FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Sondre

Ørjasæter

LWNorway · FC Twente Enschede

№ 1002305Established €5.6M +0.23

Player dossierEredivisie

SondreØrjasæter

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
FC Twente Enschede
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Norway
Age
22
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ørjasæter at €7M. Model A, which never saw Ørjasæter during training, estimates €5.6M: the market value is 26% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.23A €5.6M▲ +0.44B €4.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
34
Minutes
2,466
Goals
5
Assists
8
Started
32/34
Min / app
73
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ørjasæter…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7MModel A €5.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Sondre Ørjasæter's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 31st, Assists per 90 89th, Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 98th, Minutes, last 365 days 86th, European club minutes 28th31stGoals89thAssists55thMinutes98thStarts86thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

94% this player59% attacker median98th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Jul 2022
Peak
€7M
Jun 2025
Model target
€7M
May 2026
Valuations
10
2 club changes
May 2026€7MFC Twente EnschedeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7M, FC Twente Enschede. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-07-01€150kSogndal IL
2022-12-09€300kSogndal IL
2023-06-29€500kSogndal IL
2023-12-13€750kSogndal IL
2024-06-12€2MSarpsborg 08 FF
2024-09-04€6MSarpsborg 08 FF
2024-12-12€6MSarpsborg 08 FF
2025-06-18€7MSarpsborg 08 FF
2025-12-02€6MFC Twente Enschede
2026-05-28€7MFC Twente Enschede

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.228

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 86% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 70% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€7MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ørjasæter appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).