FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Gianluca Prestianni

Gianluca

Prestianni

RWArgentina · SL Benfica

№ 1000674Elite €22.8M −0.13

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLiga Portugal

GianlucaPrestianni

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
SL Benfica
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Argentina
Age
20
Height
166 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Prestianni at €20M. Model A, which never saw Prestianni during training, estimates €22.8M: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €14.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.13A €22.8M▲ +0.32B €14.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
51
Minutes
2,410
Goals
3
Assists
7
Started
26/51
Min / app
47
Cards
14Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Prestianni…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €22.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Gianluca Prestianni's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 16th, Assists per 90 85th, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 36th, Minutes, last 365 days 77th, European club minutes 84th16thGoals85thAssists54thMinutes36thStarts77thRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.26 this player0.15 attacker median85th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2022
Peak
€20M
May 2026
Model target
€20M
May 2026
Valuations
11
2 club changes
May 2026€20MSL BenficaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €20M, SL Benfica. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2022-07-01€50kCA Vélez Sarsfield II
2022-10-26€2MCA Vélez Sarsfield II
2023-04-05€5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2023-07-04€5MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2023-12-19€10MCA Vélez Sarsfield
2024-06-06€10MSL Benfica
2024-12-19€10MSL Benfica
2025-03-31€8MSL Benfica
2025-05-30€8MSL Benfica
2025-12-18€12MSL Benfica
2026-05-28€20MSL Benfica

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.131

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 93% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 87% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Prestianni appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).